Image via WikipediaA “prediction – prediction market“. That is what piqqem is. Does it makes sense to create a prediction market to predict the predictions of another prediction market? After all, that is what stock markets are : prediction markets.
(see also the discussion by Erick Shonfeld on techcrunch)
I think it is an interesting idea.
A basic technique often used in data mining is : increase the prediction accuracy by combining several predictions, obtained by different methods. This can be done either by averaging independent predictions or by using for example a second method to predict the residual error of the first method.
Piqqem uses this second technique. The difference between the current stock price and the future price is the error on the prediction of the stock market. It is this error that piqqem wants to predict, using the wisdom of the crowds.
So it makes sense : predicting the errors of the first method by a different method.
Of course if i) this works and ii) this gets widespread, the info of the piqqems of this world will influence the stock prices reducing their added info to nil.